History suggests Sydney's auction clearance rate will decline as supply increases the further into spring

So with the election out of the way, and after the approaching school holiday interruption, Sydney auctions can get back on course for the remainder of the year.

Sydney's recent stellar run extended to record levels on the weekend with an 87.6% weekend preliminary success rate, according to Australian Property Monitors.

Just how far into spring the 80% clearance rate holding pattern can go depends very much on the levels of supply.

Recent history suggests clearance rates ought decline the further into spring, and then December, as the year progresses and stock levels rise.

Last year Sydney's first three opening weeks of the September spring had a 58% clearance rate. The clearance rate was down to 53% during the first three weeks of December.

The difference arose as there were 460 auction offerings in those early weeks and 760 weekly listings as the season headed into summer.  

In 2011 it was 52% in September and down to 49% by December. There were 500 weekly auction vendors at the start which had jumped to 750 by year's end.

The most distinct of seasonal turnarounds came in 2010 when spring began with 63% average clearance rates and by early summer had dipped to 51%.

Melbourne doesn't always follow quite the same path, given its enjoyed some enduring auction seasons, but in spring 2010 it went from a 66% opening success rate with 700 listings to a 60% clearance rate with 1000 weekend listings by December.  

The simple takeout is the early bird gets the buyers. 



Jonathan Chancellor

Jonathan Chancellor

Jonathan Chancellor is one of Australia's most respected property journalists, having been at the top of the game since the early 1980s. Jonathan co-founded the property industry website Property Observer and has written for national and international publications.

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