Terry Ryder's 20 reasons the country's property boom isn't over

Terry Ryder's 20 reasons the country's property boom isn't over
Terry Ryder's 20 reasons the country's property boom isn't over

In his latest Ryder Report, regular observer Terry Ryder takes on the so called "national property boom".

Unlike some other property commentators, Ryder doesn't believe Australia is in the grips of an emerging bubble or boom. Here are his 20 reasons why the country's boom isn't over yet.

1. "There is no national boom"

For the market to bust, there would have to be a boom, and Ryder doesn't think we have one - outside of Sydney, anyway. He's previously criticised media outlets and institutions like the Reserve Bank of Australia for focusing too much on Sydney's market when generating national commentary.

2. "Sydney still has momentum"

According to Ryder, any claims that Sydney's boom is over is "based on a single month's data", a criticism he's stated before. He says: "buoyancy remains in Sydney's market".

3. "Melbourne still has momentum"

Ryder says that a growing number of Melbourne suburbs are seeing rising sales activity, with even greater price rises likely to come.

4. "Brisbane just starting to rise"

While the other Eastern Seaboard capitals are yet to reach their peak, Ryder says Brisbane is just getting started. "Brisbane is well behind Sydney in the current cycle and is only beginning its upward movement," says Ryder. He predicts prices will rise this year.

5. "Adelaide poised to grow"

Ryder believes Adelaide "will be the surprise performer of 2014," with increasing sales activity across the city.

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6. "Hobart starting to show life"

Despite "being ignored in national assessments", Hobart's market activity is also beginning to pick up, believes Ryder.

7. "Perth still has momentum"

Although the city's sales have "plateaued" after a strong run in 2012 and 2013, Ryder thinks they remain "elevated", with possible future price growth.

8. "Darwin showing signs of revival"

Despite signs of a slowing market last year, Ryder says Darwin appeared to pick up in late 2013 and early 2014. He believes prices in the city are likely to keep rising.

9. "NSW regional cities rising"

Ryder thinks New South Wales' regional centres have picked up some heat from Sydney's market, or have their own local reasons for growth. According to Ryder, "their run is just beginning".

10. "QLD regional cities rising"

Cairns, Toowoomba, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast are leading the state's regional cities into "strong growth phases", according to Ryder.

 

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11. "Other regional centres on the up"

Ryder says regional markets south of Perth are growing. He believes South Australian and Victorian regional centres are also picking up, as is Launceston in Tasmania.

12. "Sales volumes still rising"

Ryder cites the latest update of his own Price Predictor Index which points to increasing sales volumes across the country, which he says "inevitably leads to price growth".

13. "Consumer sentiment improving"

According to Westpac's July consumer sentiment report, there is a "healthy rise in confidence" regarding real estate, says Ryder.

14. "Budget news has been digested"

"There was a brief period in May when decision-making halted as people digested the Federal budget we seem to have moved on," says Ryder.

15. "Building approvals are rising"

Ryder notes that building approvals increased 16% in 12 months to April 2014, with South Australia, Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland all leading.

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16. "Lending for homes still rising"

On an annual basis, lending for home loans is up 12%, says Ryder. He notes double-digit growth in six states and territories.

17. "Investor activity rising"

Lending for investors is up by an even greater proportion, with 28% annual growth and 1.1% growth in the month to April. Investor lending has increased by 17% or more in five states (presumably annually), says Ryder.

18. "Asian investment growing"

Though Ryder believes foreign buyers' impact on local markets is exaggerated, he does believe Asian investors are continuing to affect inner-city unit markets.

19. "Interest rates remain low"

Ryder believes Australia's current record low interest rates are "unlikely to change in the near future".

20. "National boom is just starting"

"Contrary to claims that 'the boom is over', all the evidence says that a national boom is really just beginning", claims Ryder.

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Terry Ryder

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